Lump sum & contribution
How much do you invest today, and how much comes in monthly? Both feed into the projection.
€
€0€200,000
€
€0€2,000
years
140
Dalio's weatherproof portfolio: 30% stocks, 40% long + 15% intermediate bonds, 7.5% gold, 7.5% commodities. Calculate the projected value — and compare honestly against 100% stocks.
The All-Weather Portfolio by Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) spreads capital across four economic conditions — rising/falling growth, rising/falling inflation — so that one asset class always carries the load: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate bonds, 7.5% gold, 7.5% commodities. Expected return around 4–5% p.a. — less than a pure equity portfolio, but with much smaller maximum losses.
Source: Ray Dalio / Bridgewater Associates · Tony Robbins "Money: Master the Game" (2014) · per-asset-class return assumptions
How the calculator works
How much do you invest today, and how much comes in monthly? Both feed into the projection.
The five asset classes have fixed weights (30/40/15/7.5/7.5) — exactly as with Dalio. Nothing to adjust.
You see the projected portfolio value, the breakdown by asset class and the honest benchmark against 100% stocks.
→ Result: projected portfolio value + breakdown by asset class + return given up versus 100% stocks.
Allocation, projected growth versus a pure equity portfolio and the historical metrics — all live from your inputs above.
Each of the five asset classes is projected with its own deliberately conservative return assumption: stocks 7.0%, long bonds 3.5%, intermediate bonds 2.8%, gold 3.0%, commodities 2.5% p.a. (nominal).
With the target weights 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 this gives a blended expected return of around 4.33% p.a. From this we project the lump sum and the monthly contribution over the period (monthly compounding, annuity formula).
Benchmark 100% stocks: the same contributions but at 7% p.a. — so you can see the return you give up for the lower volatility.
These figures are model calculations, not a guarantee. Real returns fluctuate; taxes, costs and inflation are not deducted here. Historically the maximum annual loss of the All-Weather Portfolio was roughly −12%, versus closer to −40% for pure stocks.
The All-Weather Portfolio trades return for calm — it swings far less than a pure equity portfolio.
Dalio's idea: in every economic state a different asset class carries the load. ~4–5% p.a. expected — lower than 100% stocks, but with smaller maximum losses (historically roughly −12% instead of −40% in a crisis year).
The annual rebalancing to the target weights is the engine: you automatically sell what is expensive and buy what is cheap. It stands and falls with discipline.
Four typical situations where this calculator pays off:
Build wealth without getting nervous at every crash.
In retirement, stability often matters more than the last bit of return.
How much return does the stability cost you versus 100% stocks?
Which amount goes into which asset class (30/40/15/7.5/7.5)?
Expected return = sum of (weight × class return) = 30%·7% + 40%·3.5% + 15%·2.8% + 7.5%·3% + 7.5%·2.5% ≈ 4.33% p.a. The lump sum + contribution are then compounded monthly.
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