Prosperity → Stocks
Rising growth, good sentiment — stocks deliver the highest return.
Buffett, Dalio, Taleb and Browne — four famous portfolio strategies plus a pure equity portfolio, compared honestly: allocation, expected return and real behavior through the crises of 2000–2024.
This comparison puts five well-known investment strategies side by side: Warren Buffett's 90/10, Ray Dalio's All-Weather, Nassim Taleb's Barbell, Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio and a pure equity portfolio. For each we show allocation, expected return and the real behavior in the 2000–2024 backtest — including the dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2022 rate turn.
Source: S&P 500 (slickcharts) · Bloomberg US Aggregate & Gold (upmyinterest) · strategy sources per calculator
Each strategy as its own calculator: Buffett 90/10 · Dalio All-Weather · Taleb Barbell · Harry Browne Permanent · 100% stocks / ETF savings plan.
The idea behind it: four economic conditions
Rising growth, good sentiment — stocks deliver the highest return.
When the economy shrinks, liquidity (cash) is the safe haven.
When money loses value, gold holds its real value — the classic hedge.
Falling prices and rates push long-term government bonds sharply higher.
→ No strategy is "the best": more stocks = more return, but more volatility; more diversification = calmer, but less return.
"Model p.a." is the expected return from conservative per-asset-class assumptions (stocks 7%, long bonds 3.5%, intermediate 2.8%, gold 3%, commodities 2.5%, cash 2%), weighted by each allocation.
"Backtest p.a." is the return actually realized by a one-time €10,000 investment from 2000 to 2024, rebalanced annually to the target weights — based on real annual returns (S&P 500, Bloomberg US Aggregate, Gold, 3-month T-Bills).
Simplifications: in the backtest, bonds are represented by the Bloomberg US Aggregate; for All-Weather the 7.5% commodities are included in the gold share. All nominal, excluding taxes, costs and inflation.
"Max. loss" is the largest historical decline (drawdown) per each strategy source. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
There is no holy grail: the right strategy depends on how much volatility you can tolerate for more return.
Over long periods a pure equity portfolio leads on return — but with losses of around −50%. Diversified strategies deliver less return at three to four times smaller volatility.
What matters is not the "best" strategy, but one you can stick with in a crisis. Whoever sells at −50% locks in a real loss — whoever stays calm wins.
Four typical questions this comparison answers:
Which approach suits you — aggressive like Buffett or calm like Browne?
How much return does more stability cost — and is the trade-off worth it to me?
How did the strategies actually perform in 2008 and 2022?
Which building blocks do you need per strategy — and at what weights?
"Model p.a." = expected return from the per-asset-class assumptions. "Backtest p.a." = return actually realized by a one-time €10,000 investment (2000–2024, rebalanced annually, real annual returns).
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