Lump sum & contribution
How much do you invest today as a one-time amount, and how much is added monthly? Both feed into the projection.
€
€0€200,000
€
€0€2,000
years
140
The Permanent Portfolio: 25% each in stocks, long bonds, gold and cash — for prosperity, deflation, inflation and recession. Calculate the projected value and compare it honestly with 100% stocks.
Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio is built on radical simplicity: 25% each in stocks, long government bonds, gold and cash. Each of the four classes carries the portfolio in exactly one economic condition — stocks in prosperity, long bonds in deflation, gold in inflation, cash in recession. Rebalance to 25/25/25/25 once a year, and you're done.
Source: Harry Browne, "Fail-Safe Investing" (1999) · lazyportfolioetf / PortfoliosLab · return assumptions per asset class
How the calculator works
How much do you invest today as a one-time amount, and how much is added monthly? Both feed into the projection.
Four equal quarters — stocks, long bonds, gold, cash. There is nothing to set.
You see the projected portfolio value, the breakdown of the four quarters and the honest benchmark against 100% stocks.
→ Result: projected portfolio value + breakdown by asset class + return given up versus 100% stocks.
Allocation, projected growth versus a pure stock portfolio and the historical metrics — all live from your inputs above.
The Permanent Portfolio is projected with four return assumptions: stocks 7.0%, long bonds 3.5%, gold 3.0%, cash 2.0% p.a. (nominal).
With 25% each, that yields an expected return of around 3.88% p.a. From this we project the one-time investment and monthly contribution over the term (monthly compounding, annuity formula).
Benchmark 100% stocks: the same contributions at 7% p.a. — so you can see the return you give up in exchange for stability.
Historically (30 yrs) the Permanent Portfolio achieved around 7% p.a. with only ~7% volatility and a maximum drawdown of around −16%. Model calculation without taxes/costs/inflation, no guarantee.
The Permanent Portfolio trades return for stability — four equal quarters that hedge one another.
Browne's idea: radical simplicity, 25% each for four economic conditions. ~7% p.a. historically (30 yrs) with a very small drawdown (around −16% instead of −50% for pure stocks).
The annual rebalancing to 25/25/25/25 is the entire effort. Gold and long bonds are the unusual building blocks — they cushion inflation and deflation.
Four typical situations where opening it really pays off:
In every economic condition one quarter carries the portfolio — you don't have to predict the future.
In retirement, stability often matters more than the last decimal of return.
How much return does the stability cost you versus 100% stocks?
Which amount goes into each of the four quarters (25% each)?
Expected return = 25%·7% + 25%·3.5% + 25%·3% + 25%·2% ≈ 3.88% p.a. This is used to compound the one-time investment + monthly contribution.
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